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PREVIEWSPBOC LPR (MON): The PBoC is to announce China’s benchmark Loan Prime Rates next week, which are likely to be maintained at their current levels, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% which is the rate most new loans are based on and with the 5-year LPR at 3.50% which is the reference for mortgages. As a reminder, Chinese banks refrained from any adjustments to the LPRs for a fourth consecutive month in September, which was as expected, while PBoC Governor Pan commented shortly after the announcement that they will use various policy tools based on the economic situation and will...
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MON: PBoC LPR, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Chinese House Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep) & Industrial Output (Sep), German Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading Index (Sep), New Zealand Trade (Sep)TUE: NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep)WED: CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd); UK CPI (Sep), Japanese Trade Balance (Sep)THU: CBRT, BOK Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th); US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct)FRI: CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Japanese CPI (Sep), UK Retail Sales (Sep), EZ, UK...
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"Despite this week’s submission of the 2026 draft budget to the parliament, uncertainty on France’s government finances remains elevated.""While, in our view, the 2025 general government budget deficit target of 5.4% of GDP will be met, we believe that, in the absence of significant additional budget deficit-reducing measures, the budgetary consolidation over our forecast horizon will be slower than previously expected.""We expect gross general government debt to reach 121% of GDP in 2028, compared with 112% of GDP at the end of last year."(S&P)
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SNAPSHOT: Equities up, Treasuries down, Crude flat/up, Dollar up, Gold downREAR VIEW: Trump reaffirms meeting with Xi in two weeks, says "no" when asked if he thinks high tariffs on China will stand; Jobless Claims reportedly fell in latest week; Zelensky says need Tomahawks; Senior Hamas official declines to say yes or no on whether they will disarm; Fed's Musalem would support another cut if more downside risks to labour evolve; Regional bank earnings ease credit fears.COMING UP: Data: Chinese House Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep) & Industrial Output (Sep), German Producer Prices (Sep), Canadian Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading...
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Hoping to be a bit more forward-looking, but there is a lot of uncertainty and forecasts will need to be approached with humility.Uncertainty is down from February and March but remains elevated.Growth is expected to resume, though likely to be soft and slightly below potential.Growth is not expected to feel strong and will not be enough to close the output gap.No major further decline in exports is expected, but neither is a rapid rebound.Consumption growth is expected to moderate from Q2 but still continue expanding.Global imbalances are widening again, and it is positive that the IMF is enhancing surveillance of...
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Support focus on "tailored and candid" advice to help countries strengthen economic resilience, safeguard macroeconomic and financial stabilityLook forward to finalizing 16th quota review with no delay.Growth has been resilient, but strains are emergingRisks to the outlook are tilted to the downside.Challenges include low growth, high debt, more frequent extreme weather events and natural disasters, trade tensions, and excessive global imbalances(Newswires)
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Will meet with China's He in Malaysia next week. (Newswires)
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Will make a deal that will be good for both. Thinks in a strong position in China trade talks.(Newswires)
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Eliminating supermajority vote requirements at Tesla would improve shareholder rights, could facilitate governance improvements if approved.Recommends Tesla shareholders vote 'against' proposal to approve issuance of common stock to Elon Musk pursuant to CEO performance award.Recommends Tesla shareholders vote 'for' shareholder proposals to declassify board and reduce supermajority vote requirement(Newswires)
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Zelensky met with US energy companies that are ready to help Ukraine.Met with military companies and spoke about air defense.We need a ceasefire.Most important thing for Ukrainians is to have security guarantees.Trump has a chance to finish this war.We need tomahawks.(Newswires)
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Trump chose Hungary for the meeting with Putin because "we like Orban".Will be talking about Ukraine striking deep into Russia. Allowing deep strikes into Russia would be an escalation.Thinks Putin wants to end the war, meeting with Putin will be a double meeting.Will be talking about sending Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine.Reiterates US need tomahawks and other things sent to Ukraine. Hopefully we can end war without Tomahawks.US is interested in Ukrainian drones.Has an obligation to make sure US is stocked up.Putin may be trying to buy time.(Newswires)
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British officials say talks are at an advanced stage. Some people briefed on the talks say the US could push for a 10% tariff.Varun Chandra, Sir Keir Starmer’s chief business adviser, has been leading talks. “We are quite close,” said one London official. “There have been extensive talks over the last 10 days.(FT)
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The financial system remains broadly sound.(Newswires)
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More fiscal headroom would be good, but would mean trade-offs.In a world as volatile it is today, a bigger buffer helps.Mindful to get the balance right on taxes.Need to see reform in UK welfare system.(Newswires)
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Disarmament is a broad issue that would have to include other armed Palestinian groups.Hamas 'will be present' on ground during an interim period led by an administration of technocrats.Hamas presence on the ground is needed to protect aid deliveries from thieves and armed gangs.Elections should be held after a transitional phase.Hamas wants 3-5yr truce to rebuild Gaza, and this is not to prepare for renewed war.Responding to Nazzal's remarks, Israeli PM's office says Hamas are to be disarmed, 'no ifs, no buts'Israeli PM's office says Hamas knows where hostage bodies are and Hamas must adhere to Trump's 20-point plan and...
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Policy
Sees limited space before rate cuts would make policy accommodative.Fed should not be on preset course and followed balanced approach.Important for the Fed to be cautious right now.Does not make decisions on one data point amid broader shutdown.In a particularly uncertain moment.It is premature what to say comes with FOMC meetings after October.Monetary policy is somewhere been restrictive and neutral.Financial conditions are accommodative.Tariff
Tariff impacts still flowing into the economy.Tariffs will work through the economy into the middle of next year.Retailers are feeling increased pressure to pass on tariff costs.Consumer facing firms are facing more trouble passing through tariffs.Inflation/Economy
Purchasing power is...
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Dr Michael Leiters will become CEO of Porsche AG (P911 GY) on 1st January 2026. (Newswires)
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Indications that disinflation process is slowing.Concerned about second-round effects.Firms more sensitive to upside inflation surprises.Policy not meaningfully restrictive.Should slow down rate cutting cycle.Slack has opened up in the labour market and making wage part of wage-price spiral less likely.Latest rise in UK unemployment is in line with what they were expecting.Should not cut every quarter, but rate cutting cycle not over.(Newswires)
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