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TODAY'S AGENDA:
US INDEX FUTURES: ES unch, NQ -0.1%, YM +0.2%, RUT unch.DAY AHEAD: In energy, Baker Hughes will release weekly rig count data in the afternoon. Today's speakers include Fed's Musalem (2025 voter); the Fed will enter its blackout period on October 18th ahead of its October 29th confab. BoE's Greene and BoE's Breeden are also scheduled. Today's CRA docket includes potential reviews by DBRS on Italy (currently BBB), S&P on the Netherlands (AAA), and S&P on Greece (BBB/A-2).BROKER MOVES: JEF upgraded at Oppenheimer; ZION upgraded at Baird; ASTS downgraded at Barclays. For the full list, click here.MAJOR MORNING MOVES...
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G7 is ready for further measures to pressure the Russian war(Newswires)
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PREVIEWSPBOC LPR (MON): The PBoC is to announce China’s benchmark Loan Prime Rates next week, which are likely to be maintained at their current levels, with the 1-year LPR at 3.00% which is the rate most new loans are based on and with the 5-year LPR at 3.50% which is the reference for mortgages. As a reminder, Chinese banks refrained from any adjustments to the LPRs for a fourth consecutive month in September, which was as expected, while PBoC Governor Pan commented shortly after the announcement that they will use various policy tools based on the economic situation and will...
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MON: PBoC LPR, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), Chinese House Prices (Sep), Retail Sales (Sep) & Industrial Output (Sep), German Producer Prices (Sep), US Leading Index (Sep), New Zealand Trade (Sep)TUE: NBH Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), UK PSNB (Sep), Canadian CPI (Sep)WED: CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd); UK CPI (Sep), Japanese Trade Balance (Sep)THU: CBRT, BOK Policy Announcement, CCP 4th Plenum (20th-23rd), European Council (23rd-24th); US Weekly Claims, Existing Home Sales (Sep), EZ Consumer Confidence Flash (Oct), Canadian Retail Sales (Aug), Australian Flash PMIs (Oct)FRI: CBR Policy Announcement, European Council (23rd-24th), Japanese CPI (Sep), UK Retail Sales (Sep), EZ, UK...
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India's Russian oil import likely to decline from DecemberJapan unlikely to halt Russian LNG imports(Newswires)
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ES flat NQ -0.1% RTY -0.3%
Solid regional bank earnings help quell yday’s regional banking concerns & Trump’s offers constructive China remarks
ZION +4.7% WAL +2.5% KRE +2.5%RF +2.8%: Rev. beat w/ provision for credit losses lower than exp.TFC +2.8%: EPS, rev. & NIM beat w/ provision for credit losses lower than exp.FITB +1.8%: EPS, rev., & NII topped w/ provision for credit losses lower than exp.HBAN +2%: EPS topped & raised FY25 NII midpointALLY +5.5%: All major metrics impressedSTT -4.5%: NII lightAXP +0.5%: Top & bottom surpassed Wall St. consensusMU -1.5%: Will halt sales of server chips to Chinese data centresLLY...
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US equities upgrades from neutral to attractive.Chinese equities upgraded from neutral to attractive.EM equities also upgraded to attractive.(Newswires)
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"Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will speak by phone on Friday with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng to discuss the ongoing trade negotiations between the United States and China, a senior Trump administration official told CNBC’s Eamon Javers.
Additional details about the call, including the specific time it would take place or the next steps that would be discussed, were not immediately clear."
(CNBC)
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We are going to do fine with China.We have to have a fair deal. (Newswires)
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Verzenio is the first contemporary therapy in over two decades to demonstrate a significant overall survival benefit in adjuvant HR+, HER2−, high-risk early breast cancerSeven-year results from the Phase 3 monarchE trial also show Verzenio plus endocrine therapy demonstrated sustained benefits in invasive disease-free survival and distant relapse-free survivalThese data were simultaneously published in Annals of Oncology and presented as a late-breaking oral session at the European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Annual Meeting(PR Newswire)
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On US economic growth, there is no reason 4% cannot continue. (FBN)
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China has a little bit of leverage right now but it would hurt them more.(FBN)
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UPGRADES
Appfolio (APPF) Upgraded to Overweight at KeyBanc; PT USD 285Bentley Systems (BSY) Upgraded to Buy at Rosenblatt Securities IncBXP (BXP) Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT USD 83Commercial Metals (CMC) Upgraded to Buy at Citi; PT USD 65Deere (DE) Upgraded to Buy at UBS; PT USD 535Freeport (FCX) Upgraded to Buy at HSBC; PT USD 50International Paper (IP) Upgraded to Buy at Stifel; PT USD 57.80Intuitive Machines (LUNR) Upgraded to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT USD 18Invitation Homes (INVH) Upgraded to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT USD 38Jefferies (JEF) Upgraded to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT USD 81Marsh McLennan (MMC) Upgraded to...
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Credit Market
Banks have ample reservesOptimistic can stay ahead of the curveMarkets should realise there is a new administration(FBN)
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Provision for credit losses USD 9mln (prev. 30mln Q/Q).(SEC)
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Guidance:
Raises lower-end of FY25 NIM 3.45-3.50% (prev. 3.40-3.50%).Trims retail auto NCOs 2.00-2.15% Y/Y (prev. 2.00-2.25%). (PR Newsire)
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Budget allows banks to unlock reserves set aside to avoid 2023 windfall tax.Government pressing ahead with state asset sales and have stakes need to divest.Budget sets restrictions on ways financial firms use past losses to lower their tax bills.Government also relying on new tax regime for bad loans to fund state licenses.(Newswires)
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Think will be fine with China.(Newswires)
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Provision for credit losses 122mln (exp. 106mln).CEO says: "Credit quality remains top tier, with net charge-offs at 0.22% and stable asset quality metrics, reflecting our disciplined client selection and proactive portfolio management".Raises midpoint FY25 mid-point FY25 NII to +10-11% Y/Y (prev. +8-9%).(HBAN IR)
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Provisions for credit losses USD 1.3bln (exp. 1.41bln, prev. 1.4bln Y/Y).The decrease reflected a lower reserve build compared to prior year, partially offset by higher net write-offs. The third-quarter net write-off rate was 1.9 percent, flat Y/Y.Guidance
FY EPS view 15.20-15.50 (exp. 15.34).FY revenue growth view of 9-10%.
(American Express)
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Budget freezes taxes on plastic and sugary drinks for all 2026. Government is assessing tapping EU escape clause to boost defense spending in 2026.(Newswires)
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2028 price forecast is important for next ECB move.(Newswires)
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Adj. EBITDA 2.06bln (exp. 2.06bln). (businesswire)
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Net charge-offs USD 339mln, up USD 200mln from the prior quarter and the NCO ratio increased 64 bps to 1.09%.Q3 net charge offs of USD 178mln related to impairment of an asset-backed finance commercial credit.Commercial net charge-offs USD 275mln, with a commercial NCO ratio of 1.46%, up 108 bps from the prior quarter. The increase in commercial net charge-offs from the prior quarter was primarily due to the asset-backed credit mentioned above. Consumer net charge-offs were USD 64mln, with a consumer NCO ratio of 0.52%, down 4 bps sequentially.NIM 3.13% (prev. 3.12% Q/Q).(businesswire)
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NIM 3.02% (exp. 2.8%)NII USD 3.63bln (exp. 3.694bln)GUIDANCE:
Q4 adj. rev. growth view 1-2% (exp. 5.32bln)FY adj. rev. growth view 1.5-2.5% (exp. 20.51bln)(PR Newswire)
