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Warsh will cut rates without White House pressure.(YouTube; )
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S&P 500Revvity Inc. (RVTY) EPS (exp. 1.57), Revenue (exp. 764mln), Next Qtr. EPS (exp. 1.11), Next Qtr. Rev. (exp. 683mln), Current FY EPS (exp. 4.94), Current FY Rev. (exp. 2.85bln), Next FY EPS (exp. 5.32), Next FY Rev. (exp. 2.93bln) 11:00GMT/06:00EST
IDEXX Laboratories Inc. (IDXX) EPS (exp. 2.93), Revenue (exp. 1.07bln), Next Qtr. EPS (exp. 3.34), Next Qtr. Rev. (exp. 1.09bln), Current FY EPS (exp. 12.93), Current FY Rev. (exp. 4.29bln), Next FY EPS (exp. 14.45), Next FY Rev. (exp. 4.66bln) 11:30GMT/06:30EST
Walt Disney Company (DIS) EPS (exp. 1.57), Revenue (exp. 25.70bln), Next Qtr. EPS (exp. 1.64), Next Qtr. Rev. (exp. 25.02bln),...
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Can take another 100,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude in its refineries.Chevron is refining about 50k bpd of Venezuelan oil in Mississippi.Would like more exposure to chemicals sector.(Market Source)
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Says Warsh is a fantastic pick for Fed Chair.Thinks the Fed will receive Warsh well.Think Warsh will be persuasive, and lot of his views are right.Deregulation will allow the Fed to shrink its balance sheet.Says is wasn't hard for him to dissent; says almost inflation over target is due to two things, one of them being housing and the other portfolio management quirks.Thinks unemployment will top out a little bit higher where they are now.Strong PPI report didn't likely move broader inflation reality.Long-end of the yield curve isn't something that bothers him right now.About what he'll do after the Fed,...
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The EU is considering replacing its price cap on Russian oil with a ban on maritime services as part of a new sanctions package over Russia’s war in Ukraine. Under the proposal, European companies would be prohibited from providing services such as insurance and transportation needed to ship Russian oil, regardless of the oil’s price. (Finx)
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Sunday
Events: BoJ SOO; OPEC+ MeetingMonday
Data: German Retail Sales (Dec), Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)Speakers: BoE’s Breeden; Fed’s BosticSupply: Treasury Refunding AnnouncementEarnings: Palantir, NXP SemiconductorsTuesday
Data: CBRT Inflation (Jan), French Prelim. CPI (Jan), US JOLTS (Dec), RCM/TIPP (Feb), New Zealand Unemployment (Q4)Speakers: RBA’s Bullock; Fed’s BowmanEvents: RBA Announcement/SOMPSupply: Japan, UK, GermanyEarnings: AMD, Supermicro, Amgen, Amcor, PayPal, PepsiCo, Pfizer, Merck, PublicisWednesday
Data: Global Final Composite/Services PMIs (Jan), EZ Flash HICP (Jan), US ADP (Jan), ISM Services (Jan), Factory Orders (Dec)Events: Riksbank Minutes (Jan); Treasury Refunding Announcement; NBP Policy AnnouncementSupply: Australia, Germany, USEarnings: Alphabet, Arm, Qualcomm, ELF, Snap, Uber, Eli Lilly,...
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Data: German Retail Sales (Dec), Global Final Manufacturing PMIs (Jan), US ISM Manufacturing PMI (Jan)Speakers: BoE’s Breeden; Fed’s BosticSupply: Treasury Refunding AnnouncementEarnings: Palantir, NXP Semiconductors(Newsquawk)
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BOJ SOO (MON): The BoJ’s Summary of Opinions follows the January policy meeting, at which the central bank kept its short-term policy rate unchanged at 0.75% in an 8-1 vote, with Hajime Takata dissenting in favour of a 25bps rate hike. The BoJ reiterated that it would continue to raise rates if its economic and price outlook is realised, while upgrading growth forecasts for FY25 and FY26 to 0.9% and 1.0%, respectively, reflecting the impact of government stimulus. Inflation projections were largely maintained, aside from a modest lift to the FY26 core CPI view. At his post-meeting press conference, Governor...
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OPEC MEETING (SUN): OPEC+ is widely expected to keep its pause on oil output increases in place for March when eight key members meet on Sunday, after a sharp rebound in prices this month. Delegates told Reuters there is little appetite to change policy after Brent prices climbed by around 8% in January to above USD 70/bbl, supported by supply disruptions rather than demand. Bloomberg also reports expectations are for policy to remain unchanged, with delegates saying there is no immediate need to respond to recent geopolitical developments in Venezuela or Iran. Analysts cite reduced output in Kazakhstan—where JPMorgan expects...
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Fed:
Have high a regard for Warsh, will make every effort to get him confirmed quickly. Trump wants him to be confirmed quickly.Warsh can speak to what the President wants, in terms of monetary policy.Legal issues with the Fed should be resolved quickly.Inflation is not far from its target; the Fed made a mistake not cutting rates this week.Economy:
"I am confident can have high growth with low inflation".PPI inflation data is different than CPI.Supply side boom is to give room for the Fed to lower rates.US:
The Trump admin is being fiscally responsible.Market interest rates should go down become of lower deficits.USD:
There...
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US President Trump announces Kevin Warsh as the next Fed Chair; USD firmer, yield curve steepens.European bourses broadly firmer; US equity futures pressured as traders weigh the Warsh pick.Spot gold briefly slipped below USD 5k/oz; Spot silver slipped below USD 100/oz.EQUITIES
European equities remained mostly firmer. Not much of a macro fresh catalyst to explain the upside, but the IBEX 35 (+2.1%) and DAX 40 (+1.2%) outperformed, with the former elevated by Caixabank(+6.1%) after the Co. announced that it expects NII to grow in 2026 whilst the latter was underpinned by gains in Adidas (+6.8%) after the Co. reported strong Q4...
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Labour market remains weak despite solid economic growth.Labour market does not look remotely healthy, and while supply was a factor, demand is weak.Inflation is elevated from tariffs but monetary policy should look through those effects given anchored expectations.Expects weak job numbers from last year to be revised lower to reflect virtually no growth in payroll employment in 2025.Policy should be closer to neutral, and perhaps around 3% vs. current rate range of 3.50-3.75%.Heard of multiple layoffs planned for 2026 with considerable doubt about job growth and significant risk of a substantial deterioration.Inflation excluding tariffs is near Fed's 2% goal and...
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TODAY'S AGENDA:
US INDEX FUTURES: ES -0.6%, NQ -0.8%, YM -0.6%, RUT -1.2%DAY AHEAD: In energy, Baker Hughes will publish its weekly rig count statistics. On the speakers' front, we may see an update from Fed Governors Miran and Waller following their dovish dissent at this week's FOMC; elsewhere, Fed Governor Bowman (voter, dove) and Fed's Musalem (2028 voter, hawk) are due to give policy remarks. In other central banks, ECB's supervisory policymakers Buch is due.BROKER MOVES: SPOT upgraded at Citi; DLTR upgraded at CFRA. For the full list, click here.MAJOR MORNING MOVES RECAP: AAPL, SNDK, DECK, SOFI, CL, TSLA, VZ,...
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Policy:
Fed should be more patient for now.Still think we need to be somewhat restrictive.A case can be made that inflation and job risks are now in balance.Rate decision involves 12 people.Two cuts in 2026 is not the baseline case.Inflation:
Still have ways to go on inflation, need to be vigilant.Still tariff effects on prices that have yet to come through.Expects inflation to be stubborn.Labour Market:
Downside risk to labour market is much further away than it was.Fed Chair:
Do not know Warsh well, but head he is quite thoughtful.Independence of the Fed is always a concern.Balance Sheet:
Balance sheet grew in response to crisis,...
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